Gold Price Today: Profit Booking, Stronger Dollar and Fed Outlook Trigger Decline

Gold and silver prices experienced a downward movement during Wednesday’s trade as investors booked profits after recent highs. A firming US dollar and cautious remarks from the Federal Reserve also weighed on the bullion market. Despite the pullback, experts maintain that gold’s long-term outlook remains favorable, supported by expectations of rate cuts and sustained global uncertainties.

At around 10 AM, MCX Gold October futures traded 0.38 percent lower at ₹1,13,400 per 10 grams, while MCX Silver December futures were down 0.27 percent at ₹1,34,702 per kilogram.

Why Did Gold Prices Drop Today?

Several factors contributed to the decline in gold and silver prices:

1. Profit Booking at High Levels
   Gold recently hit record highs, with MCX Gold October futures touching ₹1,14,179 per 10 grams in the previous session. Many traders opted to book profits, leading to a short-term correction.
2. Rise in the US Dollar Index
   The dollar index rose 0.10 percent, making gold costlier for foreign buyers. A stronger dollar typically dampens international demand for bullion.
3. Federal Reserve’s Cautious Stance
   Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in remarks quoted by Reuters, emphasized balancing risks between inflation and a weakening labor market. This has led markets to reassess the pace of interest rate cuts.

Summary Table

Fed Policy and Interest Rate Expectations

According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, the market currently expects:

• Two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2025.
• 93 percent probability of a cut in October.
• 77 percent probability of another cut in December.

Interest rate cuts generally support gold, as lower yields make non-interest-bearing assets like bullion more attractive.

Historical Context: Gold’s Rally in India

Gold’s performance in India has been remarkable over the past five years:

• 23 September 2020: Gold traded around ₹50,250 per 10 grams.
• 23 September 2025: Gold neared ₹1,14,000 per 10 grams.

This represents a 130 percent gain in just five years. Year-to-date (YTD) in 2025, gold has already surged by 50 percent, while silver has risen 54 percent over the last year.

Technical Outlook for Gold and Silver

Key Support and Resistance Levels

• Gold (International)
  • Support: $3,784 – $3,755 per troy ounce
  • Resistance: $3,840 – $3,864 per troy ounce
• Gold (MCX)
  • Support: ₹1,13,200 – ₹1,12,650
  • Resistance: ₹1,14,200 – ₹1,14,800
• Silver (International)
  • Support: $44.20 – $43.80 per troy ounce
  • Resistance: $45.00 – $45.50 per troy ounce
• Silver (MCX)
  • Support: ₹1,33,600 – ₹1,32,400
  • Resistance: ₹1,36,600 – ₹1,38,000

Analysts suggest that gold may remain range-bound in the short term but is supported by strong fundamentals in the long run.

Expert Views

• Manoj Kumar Jain, Prithvifinmart Commodity Research:
  Recommends buying gold near ₹1,12,500 with a stop loss at ₹1,11,880 for a target of ₹1,14,400. Suggests waiting for corrective dips in silver before fresh entries.
• Rahul Kalantri, Mehta Equities:
  Sees gold support at ₹1,13,000 – ₹1,12,380 and resistance at ₹1,14,450 – ₹1,14,900. Silver support is at ₹1,33,450 – ₹1,32,750, with resistance at ₹1,35,850 – ₹1,36,600.
• Motilal Oswal:
  Predicts MCX Gold support at ₹1,13,170 and ₹1,12,850, with resistance at ₹1,13,780 and ₹1,14,070. For silver, support is seen at ₹1,34,000 – ₹1,33,300, and resistance at ₹1,35,400 – ₹1,36,000.

Should You Buy Gold Now?

For Long-Term Investors

Yes, corrections like these often present opportunities to accumulate gold. With rate cuts expected and geopolitical risks high, gold continues to be a strong hedge against inflation and uncertainty.

For Short-Term Traders

Caution is advised. Gold may trade within a narrow range, and profit booking could lead to further pullbacks before the next upward leg.

For Retail Buyers

With the festive and wedding season approaching, buyers may consider making purchases during dips before renewed demand drives prices higher again.

Outlook for the Week

• Gold and silver prices are likely to remain volatile due to fluctuations in the US dollar index and anticipation of key US economic data, including weekly jobless claims and the PCE inflation index.
• Analysts recommend a buy-on-dips strategy for both gold and silver.

Conclusion

Gold and silver prices corrected modestly on Wednesday as investors booked profits after recent highs, coupled with the strengthening dollar and cautious comments from the Federal Reserve. While short-term volatility is expected, the long-term outlook for bullion remains positive, supported by the likelihood of interest rate cuts, continued central bank buying, and ongoing geopolitical risks.

For investors, this dip presents an opportunity to accumulate gradually, while traders must remain vigilant with strict stop-loss strategies.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Q1: Why are gold prices falling today?

Gold prices dropped due to profit booking, a stronger US dollar, and cautious comments from the Federal Reserve.

Q2: What is the current price of gold and silver on MCX?

As of Wednesday morning, MCX Gold October futures were at ₹1,13,400 per 10 grams, and MCX Silver December futures were at ₹1,34,702 per kg.

Q3: Is this a good time to buy gold?

Yes, for long-term investors, corrections present an opportunity to accumulate. Short-term traders should remain cautious due to volatility.

Q4: What are gold’s support and resistance levels today?

Gold has support at ₹1,13,000 – ₹1,12,380 and resistance at ₹1,14,450 – ₹1,14,900.

Q5: What factors will influence gold prices this week?

Dollar index movements, US jobless claims data, and the PCE inflation index will play key roles in price trends.